NL East Predictions

Recently I was asked by a friend to break down the NL East for the 2010 season. Before I give how I think the season will go let me just say that I usually hate reading preseason predictions. The biggest reason I’m not a huge fan of these things is because a team changes so much during the course of a season. Take last year for example: the Braves started last season with Casey Kotchman at first, Jordan Schafer in center, Jeff Francoeur in right, and Kelly Johnson at second. None of these guys finished the season at their respected positions with the Braves. So what I’m going to break down is how I think these teams will finish if they keep their rosters set at where they are now.

1. Phillies: I know I’m a self proclaimed Braves homer, but it’s hard to pick against a team that represented the NL in the World Series the past two seasons. The Phillies were good last year and have only gotten better in the offseason. Pedro Feliz is the only starting position player the Phillies lost to free agency but he was replaced with Placido Polanco. Last season the Phillies had a lot of power, but they had no player hit .300. Polanco should help in that category. Cliff Lee was traded to Seattle, but Roy Halladay made his way to Philly. Halladay is one of the premier pitchers in the MLB right now and the Phillies have him for the next four seasons. I predict the Phillies to have one of the most successful seasons in franchise history. Look for the Phitens to win somewhere between 95-100 games.

2. Braves: I’m not saying the Braves should simply play for the wild card, because you never know what could happen. Maybe they could catch the Phils; I just realistically don’t see it happening. However, I think the Braves will make that gap a little closer. Let’s not forget the Braves did win 86 games last season. That was a season without a full year of Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, or the bats of Jason Heyward and Troy Glaus in the lineup. I’ve already outlined what I think will make the Braves successful in another entry, so I won’t get into it here. The bottom line for the Braves is that this team will have to be healthy to be successful. If Glaus, Chipper, Wagner, and Hudson can all put together a healthy season look for the Braves to inch closer to the Phillies.

3. Marlins: I went back and forth on this one, but in the end I chose the Florida Marlins to finish third. Every season the Marlins seem to fly under the radar and every year they seem to be in the mix at the end of the season. They have some of the best young talent in the game right now. Josh Johnson, Chris Coghlan, and of course Hanley Ramirez are all guys that any team would want. Florida also has one of the best managers in the game in Fredi Gonzalez. I would love to see what this guy could do with a team that actually had some money to spend. The Marlins didn’t make any big splashes in the offseason, and they did lose Nick Johnson. Still with the way this organization has shown that they can scout, I don’t see the Marlins taking a hit this season. I expect the Marlins to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 85 games. This is a team who could surprise me by surpassing my expectations or completely blowing them.

4. Mets: Ah the Mets…maybe it’s the Braves shades I have on, but I don’t see the Mets competing for much this season. I am amazed that Omar Minaya still has a job. I love how the Mets go out every offseason and put all their money in one big free agent and expect that to solve all their problems. Add the fact that thanks to Bernie Madoff the Mets may be lower on funds that they are letting on and I just don’t see the Mets having a very successful season. The Mets are top heavy in every category. They have Santana and not much else in the starting pitching department. They have Jason Bay and not much else in the power hitting department. They have K-Rod and not much else in the bullpen. I guess once again with the Mets it will all come down to health. If they can have Beltran, Reyes, and Wright all healthy for an entire season MAYBE they can make a run. Let me say one more thing about this: I HATE the Mets, so maybe I’m a little biased to be doing a prediction on how their season is going to go. So if this seems a little harsh cut me some slack, I am a Braves fan after all.

5. Nationals: Believe it or not the Nationals will be better this season. They made some moves this offseason. Some were good, and some were questionable (giving Pudge Rodriguez a two-year deal?!?), but the bottom line is the Nationals actually seemed like they want to put a better product on the field. Adam Dunn is a beast at the plate who is going to give them at least 35 jacks. Add Ryan Zimmerman, Nyjer Morgan, and Josh Willingham and this is a pretty good team. It all comes down to pitching for me. I feel like Jason Marquis was a good signing, but they’re going to need more than that to overtake the Mets for fourth place in my book. I think the Nationals will be making a huge mistake if they break camp with Strasburg on their major league squad. Give the guy some seasoning in the minors and let him help you make a run in ’11.

I’m probably going to take some heat for how I broke this down, especially from Mets fans. But hey if you don’t like it, give me your predictions in my comment section. Just don’t be too hard on me.