Can Bobby Work his 2nd Half Magic One More Time?

Today marks the start of this year’s All-Star Break and our Atlanta Braves find themselves in first place. When looking back at what has unfolded for Bobby’s historic final season, I decided to compare it to other seasons the skipper has led. In doing so I found some pretty interesting stats. In every season that a Cox team has led at the All-Star break (there has been ten), only one has failed to win it’s respected division (1984 Blue Jays). Given Cox’s second half track record it is easy to feel excited about this season. However, I also have to feel a little uneasy knowing that the Phillies will be expecting a few infielders back from the D.L. in the second half.
 
Infante Has A Series: I got to admit that I like most of you was pretty surprised when I learned that Omar Infante was named to the All-Star game. But you got to give to Omar for proving why he deserves to be there. During the final series of the first half against the Mets Infante went 10 for 14. His most notable performance came Friday night when he went 4 for 5 with a big fly. Great job All-Star!

Winning at the Ted: I wanted to leave you guys with one more piece of optimism. The Braves have a major league best 30-10 home record. For the remainder of the season the Braves will play eight more home games than road games. So, if the Braves keep the pace they are on this could be a great sendoff for Bobby!    

Some Braves Need Your Help

Vote-for-Prado[1].jpgWell fans here we are again. It’s early June and all we can hear when we watch a baseball game is how we need to go online and cast our votes for the All Star Game. Well don’t expect any different from me. When looking at the latest All Star voting results I feel like it is my duty to touch on this for just a second. Look, I get why Chase Utley is a popular guy. He’s a hard worker and a really good ballplayer as well. However, this season he has not been the best NL position player by any means. But the NL isn’t the only problem. In the American League Miguel Cabrera is batting .358 with 17 homers, so he has to be leading the league in 1B right? Nope, try third. Come on guys when you vote there is a button that says “compare stats” and it lays out all the numbers for you.

But hey this IS a Braves blog right? So what Braves need your help? How about these three guys:

Martin Prado: Here is a guy who is leading the league in batting average right now and has more multi-hit games than anyone in the NL.  However, in the latest polls he was trailing Utley and Rickie Weeks. Take a tip from Peter Moylan (see picture above) and VOTE FOR PRADO.

Troy Glaus: I’m not saying that Pujols shouldn’t start for NL, but with the past month and a half that Troy has had I do feel like he should be in consideration for a reserve spot. Glaus went on a tear in May batting .330 with 6 homers. In June he has not let up. In the six games in June he has hit 3 homers with an .882 slugging %.

Jason Heyward: Jay-Hey is killing the ball, and he has been all season. The two time Rookie of the Month has been as advertised. Even though he has let up as of late he is still one of the most impressive outfielders the NL has to offer this year and he needs your help getting him to LA. At last check he was 5th overall for NL outfielders.

 

Too Early to Get Excited? One more thing. I can’t leave here without mentioning the great offensive play we’ve seen from the Braves as of late. Although it is early, I did find something interesting when looking at research this week. In six of the past eight seasons the team that was leading the NL East on June 1 won the division that season. Like I said it is early, but I’m still excited about what we’ve seen from the Braves so far this season.  

Glavine to Have His Number Retired

glavmadsmoltzsmaller.jpgThe Braves announced today that they will retire Tom Glavine’s number as well as inducting the southpaw into the Braves Hall of Fame. The story is found here . Speaking as someone who was a devoted Braves fan in the nineties I can say that this will be well deserved. I think that being a kid I was a little spoiled with the starting pitching the Braves had with the Smoltz-Glavine-Maddux trifecta. I think that if I had the opportunity to experience that now maybe I could be a little more appreciative of what was going on in Atlanta. However, that’s a moot point because there will never be another rotation like that in Major League Baseball. Congratulations to Tommy and I can’t wait to see the number 47 on the walls of the Ted. 

Get Used to This: Jason Heyward hit third in tonight’s Braves lineup against the Brewers. Get used to it! At the age of twenty Heyward could potentially be batting third for the next 15-20 years. Look, no one is a bigger Chipper Jones fan than me. But Larry’s time as our three-hole hitter has gone. Listen up Bobby: when (or should I say “if”) Chipper’s groin feels better swap Chipper’s and Jason’s spots in the lineup. You can’t keep the team’s HR, RBI, and OBP leader batting sixth.

Glaus Finally Heating Up: Troy Glaus has finally started showing the power that we kept hearing about all offseason. Glaus has homered in each of the last two games and seemed to be more comfortable. I was pretty vocal in my distain for the Braves’ offseason activity, and the nine game losing streak didn’t help. But, if Glaus can come around maybe we can salvage something positive for this season.

Let the Season Begin

Thank God the season finally starts today. For the first time in my life as a fan I have really followed spring training this year. Most years I just keep an eye on the win-loss record during spring and I catch an occational game on TV. This year however, with Jason Heyward trying to earn a spot on the MLB roster I decided to really follow each play of the spring. And what a spring it was! So with all that being said, here are the biggest stories of the spring and my thoughts on them:

Jason ”The Phenom” Heyward: Jason Heyward may never get a hit in the regular season, but he sure looked good in the spring. Especially in batting practice where he spent his time peppering cars over 450 feet away. Heyward hit .305 with a HR and 5 RBIs. Most impressive to me though was the fact that he walked ten times. For a 20 year old hoping to make a team, that kind of patience is very impressive.

Nate McLouth Slumps: Nate has had a real rough spring. In his first 38 at bats he only had one hit. He finished the spring with a horrific .118 BA with only two extra base hits. At the beginning of spring I was less worried about the slumps of McLouth than I am now. During the offseason I was pretty upset about the Javier Vazquez trade, but as the spring has gone on the more relieved I am to have Melky Cabrera to plug into that leadoff spot. I do think that McLouth will eventually find his swing again, I just hope that he finds it soon because the games in April count just as much as the ones in September.

Huddy’s Back: I’ve never let it be a secret that I am a huge fan of Tim Hudson. But I was a little nervous this time a year ago that Hudson may never be the same again. I know it’s only spring, but Hudson sure has done his part to ease all of our nerves. In his 24 innings pitched he had a 1.50 ERA with 20 strikeouts and only walking four. I hope that this continues into the season, but based on the spring I think we can go ahead and label Hudson the staff’s ace.  

Offense We Need You: The one thing that I was most relieved to see this spring was the Braves swinging the bat nicely. Apart from McLouth, the starters all enjoyed a pretty good spring at the plate. This is the biggest question mark going into the season. Although the games didn’t count it was very impressive to see McCann bat .500, Glaus bat .385, Prado bat .383 and Chipper bat .310. What I liked the most though, was the fact that the Braves walked a lot this spring. Patience at the plate is something that has been severly lacking the past few seasons, so maybe that will change this year.

NL East Predictions

Recently I was asked by a friend to break down the NL East for the 2010 season. Before I give how I think the season will go let me just say that I usually hate reading preseason predictions. The biggest reason I’m not a huge fan of these things is because a team changes so much during the course of a season. Take last year for example: the Braves started last season with Casey Kotchman at first, Jordan Schafer in center, Jeff Francoeur in right, and Kelly Johnson at second. None of these guys finished the season at their respected positions with the Braves. So what I’m going to break down is how I think these teams will finish if they keep their rosters set at where they are now.

1. Phillies: I know I’m a self proclaimed Braves homer, but it’s hard to pick against a team that represented the NL in the World Series the past two seasons. The Phillies were good last year and have only gotten better in the offseason. Pedro Feliz is the only starting position player the Phillies lost to free agency but he was replaced with Placido Polanco. Last season the Phillies had a lot of power, but they had no player hit .300. Polanco should help in that category. Cliff Lee was traded to Seattle, but Roy Halladay made his way to Philly. Halladay is one of the premier pitchers in the MLB right now and the Phillies have him for the next four seasons. I predict the Phillies to have one of the most successful seasons in franchise history. Look for the Phitens to win somewhere between 95-100 games.

2. Braves: I’m not saying the Braves should simply play for the wild card, because you never know what could happen. Maybe they could catch the Phils; I just realistically don’t see it happening. However, I think the Braves will make that gap a little closer. Let’s not forget the Braves did win 86 games last season. That was a season without a full year of Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, or the bats of Jason Heyward and Troy Glaus in the lineup. I’ve already outlined what I think will make the Braves successful in another entry, so I won’t get into it here. The bottom line for the Braves is that this team will have to be healthy to be successful. If Glaus, Chipper, Wagner, and Hudson can all put together a healthy season look for the Braves to inch closer to the Phillies.

3. Marlins: I went back and forth on this one, but in the end I chose the Florida Marlins to finish third. Every season the Marlins seem to fly under the radar and every year they seem to be in the mix at the end of the season. They have some of the best young talent in the game right now. Josh Johnson, Chris Coghlan, and of course Hanley Ramirez are all guys that any team would want. Florida also has one of the best managers in the game in Fredi Gonzalez. I would love to see what this guy could do with a team that actually had some money to spend. The Marlins didn’t make any big splashes in the offseason, and they did lose Nick Johnson. Still with the way this organization has shown that they can scout, I don’t see the Marlins taking a hit this season. I expect the Marlins to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 85 games. This is a team who could surprise me by surpassing my expectations or completely blowing them.

4. Mets: Ah the Mets…maybe it’s the Braves shades I have on, but I don’t see the Mets competing for much this season. I am amazed that Omar Minaya still has a job. I love how the Mets go out every offseason and put all their money in one big free agent and expect that to solve all their problems. Add the fact that thanks to Bernie Madoff the Mets may be lower on funds that they are letting on and I just don’t see the Mets having a very successful season. The Mets are top heavy in every category. They have Santana and not much else in the starting pitching department. They have Jason Bay and not much else in the power hitting department. They have K-Rod and not much else in the bullpen. I guess once again with the Mets it will all come down to health. If they can have Beltran, Reyes, and Wright all healthy for an entire season MAYBE they can make a run. Let me say one more thing about this: I HATE the Mets, so maybe I’m a little biased to be doing a prediction on how their season is going to go. So if this seems a little harsh cut me some slack, I am a Braves fan after all.

5. Nationals: Believe it or not the Nationals will be better this season. They made some moves this offseason. Some were good, and some were questionable (giving Pudge Rodriguez a two-year deal?!?), but the bottom line is the Nationals actually seemed like they want to put a better product on the field. Adam Dunn is a beast at the plate who is going to give them at least 35 jacks. Add Ryan Zimmerman, Nyjer Morgan, and Josh Willingham and this is a pretty good team. It all comes down to pitching for me. I feel like Jason Marquis was a good signing, but they’re going to need more than that to overtake the Mets for fourth place in my book. I think the Nationals will be making a huge mistake if they break camp with Strasburg on their major league squad. Give the guy some seasoning in the minors and let him help you make a run in ’11.

I’m probably going to take some heat for how I broke this down, especially from Mets fans. But hey if you don’t like it, give me your predictions in my comment section. Just don’t be too hard on me.

Jake’s Player Profile: Brian McCann

b-Braves-catcher-Brian-4274992e7445[1].jpgBelow is the final part of a four-part series titled “Jake’s Player Profile”. Each Monday for the past four weeks I have posted a quick profile of my four favorite Braves. I tell you why I like them, what they did in 2009, and my prediction for what they will do in 2010. Here’s my profile of Brian McCann:

Why I like him: Brian McCann is a homegrown guy who loves the Braves and loves the city of Atlanta. I also know first hand that he’s very appreciative of the fans. I had the opportunity to meet McCann at the Braves caravan this year and he really took the time to thank each and every person who stood in line to meet him. Like Tim Hudson, Brian also is involved in many charities including The Rally Foundation for Childhood Cancer Research.

What he did in 2009: Brian had a rocky first month of the season in 2009 due to blurry vision. He spent a small amount of time on the DL then came back with some new Oakleys and better than ever. After returning to the Major League club in the month of May he hit .394, with a .481 OBP and a .576 SLG. He finished the season with decent numbers and a third Silver Slugger award in only four seasons.

My 2010 Prediction: McCann had Lasik surgery for the second time right after the season concluded. By doing so he hopes to eliminate those cool glasses he wore for much of the season  I think that if the surgery was successful we can see McCann back to the form he displayed in 2008. Also, with the addition of Troy Glaus and with a Chipper Jones bounce back (hopefully) Brian will not have so much stress placed on him to display huge power numbers. I never liked the idea of a catcher in the NL as a cleanup hitter. When a guy has to take every fifth day off you probably shouldn’t expect him to lead the team in HRs. So maybe guys like Glaus and Heyward can take some of the load off of McCann. 

Jake’s Player Profile: Tim Hudson

tim-hudson-photograph-c12270879[1].jpgBelow is the third part of a four-part series titled “Jake’s Player Profile”. Each Monday for four weeks I will post a quick profile of my four favorite Braves. I will tell you why I like them, what they did in 2009, and my prediction for what they will do in 2010. Here’s my profile of Tim Hudson:

Why I like him: Tim Hudson is a guy who knows and loves the game of baseball. During his senior season at Auburn University he bolstered huge numbers for his pitching (15-2, 2.97 ERA) and hitting (.396 BA, 18 HR, and 97 RBI). I’ve always enjoyed watching good pitching more than huge offense and it’s a pleasure for me to sit and watch Tim Hudson baffle hitters with his sinker. One other reason I like Tim Hudson is because of the work he does with many charities including his own Hudson Family Foundation. It’s really awesome to see a guy who has been blessed and still takes time to give back.

What he did in 2009: Hudson was limited to just seven games last season due to Tommy John ligament replacement surgery. However, when he did return to the mound he seemed to be back into his usual Hudson form. Although 2009 was a small sample size Hudson did have some pretty good numbers. He had an ERA of 3.61, he pitched 42.1 innings and had 30 strikeouts, he also posted a 1.46 WHIP. Like I said it was a small sample but it did seem to be enough for the Braves to feel like he was in good enough shape to part ways with Javier Vazquez during the offseason.

My 2010 Prediction: It’s hard to predict what Tim will do in 2010. Due to the marvels of modern medical science some guys have come back better than 100% after Tommy John. In 2009 the chances of a complete recovery after Tommy John were estimated at 85-92%. However there are other guys who have never been the same after the surgery. My guess is that Hudson will be back to the same form he showed in 2008 before he was injured. He will be a solid piece at the top of the rotation who is capable of winning 15-17 games. I think he will also be a relief for the bullpen by pitching later into games. In his last full season (2007) he pitched 224.1 innings which is something that the bullpen will greatly appreciate.    

Jake’s Player Profile: Matt Diaz

 
 
Atlanta+Braves+v+New+York+Mets+EQ5kVRA3sybl[1].jpgBelow is the second part of a four-part series titled “Jake’s Player Profile”. Each Monday for four weeks I will post a quick profile of my four favorite Braves. I will tell you why I like them, what they did in 2009, and my prediction for what they will do in 2010. Here’s my profile of Matt Diaz:

Why I like him: A word that is overused way too much in sports is “gamer”. However, it’s hard for me to find a better adjective to describe Matt Diaz. He always plays hard and seems to love playing the game of baseball. Matt has never let the fact that he has spent his entire major league career as a platoon player slow him down and that’s something that you have to respect. There’s just some guys that I love to watch play the game and Matt Diaz is one of those guys.

What he did in 2009: Diaz spent most of 2009 platooning in LF with Garret Anderson. However he did find starting time in RF when Francoeur was struggling and when Ryan Church was injured. He made the most of the time that he saw at the plate and he finished the season with a career high 377 at bats. He also toppped his career numbers in OBP (.390), SLG (.488), and HR (13). Matt was a solid bat in the lineup and really led the way for the Braves down the stretch when they went on a tear during the month of September.

My 2010 prediction: Matt will most likely spend most of the 2010 season platooning left with Melky Cabrera. However if the Braves feel that Jason Heyward is not ready for the majors out of spring training Diaz will likely keep right field warm until Heyward is ready to make that leap. My hope is that the Braves will take notice of the hard work that Matt has put forth and offer him the everyday LF spot. I predict that if he can see the 500+ at bats that everyday players get that his HR totals will certainly improve. I know that if he’s given the opportunity Matt will continue to have great success at the major league level and 2010 will be another good one for Matty Diaz!  

Jake’s Player Profile: Jair Jurrjens

jair[1].jpgBelow is the first part of a four-part series titled “Jake’s Player Profile”. For the next four weeks I will post a quick profile of my four favorite Braves. I will tell you why I like them, what they did in 2009, and my prediction for what they will do in 2010. Here’s my profile of Jair Jurrjens:

Why I like Jurrjens: What’s not to like about a 23 year old right hander who is capable of running through the toughest lineups in the national league? Don’t believe me? Check out this, this, or this. Jurrjens was one of the top pitchers for the Braves the past two seasons. I am fully convinced that had he had a small amount of run support the rest of the league would agree with me that Jurrjens is a top tier pitcher in the National League.

What he did in 2009: As I already made mention Jurrjens could have had a huge season in Atlanta with a little run support. His 2.60 ERA ranked 3rd among NL pitchers. His 215 IP was 9th among NL pitchers. He led the league in games started with 34. Jair was a solid starter who wanted the ball every start and in this day and age with guys staring at the pitch count hoping the manager is going to pull them, that is something that is very valuable.  

My 2010 prediction: Before I give you my prediction on how I think JJ will do this season let me first tell what others are saying. The general consensus is that it would be too much to expect him to do in ’10 what he did in ’09. Recently I spoke to Adam over at The Truth About the Phillies and he cited the upgraded Mets and Phillies lineups as reasons for why Jurrjens can’t repeat in 2010. Well here’s what I think (remember I have claimed to be a total Braves homer). I think Jurrjens will not only match the success he had in ’09, but possibly eclipse it. Am I saying that his ERA will stay under 3.00? Not necessarily, but he doesn’t have to! Hanson will be in Atlanta all season, and Hudson will be back to help carry the load. I also think that another season in the majors will only make this guy better. Basically it all boils down to this: Jair’s success this season (much like a lot of the team’s success) will be contingent on whether Chipper and Glaus bounce back from last season. If these guys (along with McCann and Heyward) can provide some type of run support, we could see another excellent season from JJ!  

A Whole Lot of Questions

Recently the MLB beat writers throughout the league did the top ten questions that their teams have this offseason. You can read Mark Bowman’s entry on the Braves here. This offseason has brought many question marks for the Braves. Those questions will dictate the success of this team in 2010. So here are some of those questions and how they could either benefit or hurt the club.

Will the Javier Vazquez trade ever make sense? I like many of you was very upset when I turned on my XM radio on December 22 and learned that Javier Vazquez had been traded to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera, Arodys Vizcaino, and Mike Dunn. My initial response was to jump on my computer and blast Frank Wren on my blog. However, I decided to cool off and wait until I saw what kind of return the Braves would get with the money freed up in the deal. We still do not know exactly who the Braves will acquire with the extra money, but I decided to address the Vazquez trade anyway. This trade could be a terrible thing for the Braves or it could be one that opens up possibilities for great things. Here’s my take:

The trade is BAD for Atlanta:

 -If Troy Glaus is the only player signed from now until the season starts.

-If any of our starting pitchers have a major injury this season.

-If Vazquez repeats last season’s numbers in a Yankee uniform.

The trade is GOOD for Atlanta:

-If the Braves sign another free agent who is capable of hitting 30 homeruns.

-If Vizcaino is as good as advertised.

-If Cabrera has the best season of his career.

Before I change to a different topic let me say this one last thing. This whole trade reminds me of one that went down in October of 2007. Edgar Renteria had hit .332 for Atlanta in 2007 and was one of the few glimmers of light in a somewhat dark season. So you could imagine how we all felt when we learned that he had been traded to the Tigers for two guys who had never played in the MLB before. However, looking back it became a great trade for the Braves. Renteria didn’t fare very well in Detroit and the two players the Braves got in return were Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez (if you’re wondering about Hernandez, the Braves later used him in a trade that brought Nate McLouth to Atlanta). I’m not saying that this same thing is going to happen with the Vazquez trade, but given his history of following up a good season with a bad one it is very possible.

Will our players stay healthy? In my opinion this will be the most important question that will be answered this season. The Braves biggest signings so far this offseason have been resigning Tim Hudson to an extension, signing Billy Wagner, and signing Troy Glaus (I know that this hasn’t been officially announced, but we all know it’s going to happen). The three of them made a combined 38 appearances last season. If the Braves are going to be successful this season, these three guys will be expected to handle their fair share of the work load. Only time will tell if these gambles will pay off.

There are several other questions such as will Chipper bounce back? Will Jurrjens have the same success he had the last two seasons? Will Heyward be ready for the majors at the start of the season? etc. I could go all night. All I can say is I can’t wait for spring training!  

ONE LAST THING: Jake’s Braves Blog is now on twitter. Follow me @ http://twitter.com/jakesbravesblog !   

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